The projections for the upcoming summer season paint a promising picture for tourism in Italy, with an expected surge in visitor numbers. Anticipated figures include a robust 65.8 million arrivals and over 266 million overnight stays, representing respective growth rates of 2.1% and 1.1% compared to the previous year’s figures of 64.4 million arrivals and just over 263 million overnight stays.

Inbound tourism is also poised for a healthy influx, with an estimated 35.5 million foreign visitors choosing Italy as their destination, accounting for over half (54%) of the total projected arrivals and contributing to a substantial 135.5 million overnight stays. Moreover, proactive scenarios could potentially boost these estimates further, with projections indicating over 70 million arrivals and 278.3 million overnight stays, marking an 8.8% and 5.8% increase respectively compared to the same period in 2023. These insights stem from the “Tourism Forecast Summer 2024” report by the Demoskopika Institute, which has meticulously analyzed key tourism indicators such as arrivals, overnight stays, tourist spending, and inflation.

Furthermore, recent data, as of February of the current year, suggests that Italy boasts one of the lowest rates of tourist inflation in Europe, standing at 3.9% according to the Harmonized Index of Consumer Prices (HICP), developed to ensure comparability across European nations. This places Italy third among the “most favorable” destinations, trailing only France (3.7%) and Germany (2.9%). Nevertheless, this favorable inflationary environment is somewhat tempered by its impact on tourist spending, which is expected to surpass €43 billion, reflecting a promising 4% growth compared to the summer months of 2023. However, this positive momentum is dampened by rising tourist inflation, which is projected to increase by 3.5% year-on-year for the summer of 2024.

Certain components of the tourist basket are particularly affected by inflationary pressures, notably air transport (15.5%), domestic holiday packages (8.2%), and hotels (6.7%), which have seen higher inflation rates in March 2024 compared to the same period last year.

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