Risk is nothing but statistics: its formula extends between the ethereal form of a chance and the narcissistic reflection of a damage.
In the probabilistic calculation, the number 1 represents a certain event – at least as I remember – and within this apparently defined world, several small events which, armed with more or less strong beliefs, fight each other for supremacy, are confused. They need to fight to exist. The chaotic nature of this war seems obvious to me. Even the Muses who provided Hesiod with inspiration in drafting the Theogony, when asked “who was born first?”, answered “Chaos”.
The 9 Muses, daughters of memory, unforgettable archives of reminiscences and scars, 0 as the kings of men corrupted in Nazgul by the power of Sauron rings in Tolkien’s trilogy. And who knows if it was a corrupted Urania, wearing a black cloak and riding a winged beast, thath created statistics, after leaving astronomy and geometry.
The risk does not match with our perception of it: there are thousands of mistakes that our mind makes while aiming the budget. Funds are too short to continue to process numbers, shift alternatives, image and anticipate possible effects, so, most of the time, we just travel in economy class, even without bothering about cancellation terms. Talking about flights and saving, Wild Turkey in the 70s decided to free a flock of turkey from a plane, these, after having glided over the hometown of the famous bourbon, would have landed on the streets, beautifully decorated with the company logo. To cut expenses they changed the breed – with one that couldn’t fly.
A glogled Dresda in wich i can’t say whether people or turkeys’ terror was deeper. A Kikusui operation alla cacciatora – a fusion cuisine plate.
Today is the International Day for the Reduction of Natural Disasters Risk, and risk, we have said to be the result of a relationship between probability and damage.
However, if a risk is “natural”, thinking about reducing its probability is as oxymoronic as useless would be trying to change its perception – there is only one variable wich we can act on: the damageWe have to accept the necessity of the events, and by doing it we can start developing strategies to help contain their negative effects.
I imagine the world during a global evacuation test – the happiness of skipping a class.
Men taking each other hand to hand to gain courage among the silent rubble, an opener to pave the path, a controller checking for no one to quit, a safe point as the destination. Prevent, train and monitor. Softing like Willy The Coyote opening a small pink umbrella to avoid falling into the void.
Ad-tutari, to be protected, a clear and well-defined etymology.